Note: I can tell this is taking on a life of its own. So, I’ll attempt to collect them all under the “Outta Left Field” category.
Trump could win another four years.
Despite a blue wave. In the clutch of a pandemic. Faced with so many people who have waited four years to vote him out, Trump could win.
There could be a repeat of the results of the electoral college. A situation is possible where Biden wins the popular vote, but Trump gathers the electoral votes to win. It’s possible. We’ve seen it happen.
I don’t think his victory will be that clear cut. I believe that November 3rd, 2020 will be the beginning of an unprecedented period of constitutional crisis in the United States.
Trump has established the four corners he needs to tilt the board in his favor: mistrust of the voting system, voter restriction, the threat of violence, and stacking the Supreme Court.
From day one, even in victory, Trump was sowing doubt about the electoral process in the United States. He has continuously cited fictitious voter fraud over the four years of his office. If nothing else, he has sown doubt in his followers’ minds. He has attacked every form of voting from in-person to voting by absentee ballot. He wants the nation to doubt. He wants his followers to believe.
The purging of voting rolls in the 2016 election was only the first step in restricting voter access. A formal poll-tax was not passed, but restricting ballot boxes to only one location in a county in Wisconsin and Texas is essentially the same. If you are too poor to have a car, if there is no public transportation, you have one more obstacle to getting to the polls.
The debacle with the Post Office and sorting machines was a direct attack on the ability of the citizenry to vote by mail. This method of casting a ballot has been historically secure. Why now decide that the Post Office sorting machines should not only be off-line, but also made inoperable? If we were in the Soviet Union – I would expect to hear the term ‘wreckers’ being used.
Then we have the escalating threat of violence on election day. The call for ‘poll watchers’ across the nation went out by Trump during a national debate. Again he is throwing doubt on the integrity of the political process. More than that though, he is encouraging voter intimidation. The Trump camp even sent out a please for every able-bodied man and woman “to join an army for Trump’s election security.”
I would have you note that it was for Trump’s election. Not ‘the election.’ That is how he views this election. It is not a choice, it is a confirmation of his own supremacy.
That leads us to the point about the ‘threat of violence’. I don’t know how this might play out across the US, but here in the South – with a history of lynching and violence against the black population – there is some anxiety. The caution is not misplaced. Trump is intentionally increasing the tension between races in the hopes of violence, because violence is his key to martial law.
Last, but certainly not the smallest threat, is the stacking of the Supreme Court. In most situations, the addition of three conservative voices to the bench would be nothing more than a part of how the system works. But, under Trump, a man who demands personal loyalty, I have to wonder who Gorsuch, Cavanaugh, and Barrett are serving. Are they serving Trump over America, or are they principled enough to choose the Constitution over the proto-Dictator?
This point is crucial –
You can place money on the idea that if Trump does not win the election, he will protest. It won’t matter the size of the margin. Even a blue wave cannot wash him out of the White House. Because no matter the outcome, if it is not in his favor he will use every device in his arsenal as President to cast the election into doubt. He has already called on his ‘army.’ He will call on them again.
Donald Trump will never concede. With a speed that will leave pundits spinning, this will make its way to the Supreme Court. Where we now have three sitting justices who are conservative and three who are liberal, and three who owe their position to Trump.
Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and Barrett would likely support a Trump win.
That leaves six justices. If they split along party lines – Trump wins.
If they do not split along party lines – then there is still a two out of three chance that Trump will win.
Even if the Supreme Court bounces the case out of their jurisdiction – depends on how the case reaches them – there will be at least three months of Trump at his rabid worst, his most dangerous and his most unhinged.
Make no mistake. November 3rd, 2020 is a critical day in the history of our nation, but it is only the beginning of the end. Which end we will see is still in question. Go Vote!